HealthTrackRx Predictions for the 2024-2025 Respiratory Season

Dr. Janie French • Aug. 6, 2024

The 2024-2025 respiratory season has kicked off with intensity as SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infections surge to levels not seen in over a year. In response to this significant development, the HealthTrackRx team has utilized last year’s positivity data to make critical predictions for the upcoming respiratory season.

Last respiratory season, peak positivity for COVID-19 infections occurred during the summer, with a smaller but still significant rise in cases during January.

Prediction 1: We predict that infections caused by COVID-19 this winter will peak again in January

Prediction 2: COVID-19 will have a maximum positivity rate of 12%, a lower positivity rate than the summer peak of 15.9%.

Enterovirus D68 is unusual because it circulates only every other year, typically peaking in August. This virus can be particularly serious due to its association with acute flaccid myelitis. The last year it circulated was 2022 when it peaked in August and trailed off by late October.

Prediction 3: We predict that there will be a circulation of Enterovirus D68 this year.

Prediction 4: We expect this virus to peak at over 8% positivity near the end of August.

Prediction 5: EVD68 positivity will trail back down to nearly 0% positivity by late October.

In the 2023-2024 season, influenza positivity first rose above 2% the week of October 16^th. It peaked at 15.3% during the week of December 25^th and slowly trailed off, returning to less than 2% positivity during the week of April 29^th. The slow trailing off appeared primarily caused by a surge in Influenza B virus cases, while Influenza A virus infections caused the early peak. In the Southern Hemisphere, influenza virus infections in Australia show positivity increasing in the typical time frame and at a level higher than the previous year. These cases were also primarily caused by influenza A virus.

Prediction 6: We predict that influenza cases will rise in the United States starting in mid-October and peak in late December to early January.

Prediction 7: These cases will be primarily caused by the influenza A virus and reach a maximum positivity of around 17%.

Australia also saw an increase in RSV cases this year compared to the prior season. During the 2023-2024 respiratory season, HealthTrackRx saw a maximum RSV positivity of 8.3%, which occurred at the end of November.

Prediction 7: Based on the data, we predict that the U.S. will see a larger peak of RSV this year, reaching a maximum positivity of 10%.

Prediction 8: We also expect that the timing will be like the typical circulation patterns of RSV, with positivity starting to increase in September and peaking in early November.

Understanding respiratory virus circulation is crucial for supporting better patient care by identifying periods when patients are at increased risk of infection from viruses that cause severe symptoms. Starting August 26th, follow along with us this respiratory season as we share up-to-date respiratory trends every two weeks.

This article reflects observed trends in HealthTrackRx testing positivity data, does not convey medical advice, and is provided for informational purposes only.  Individuals experiencing respiratory symptoms should consult with their healthcare provider.